THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Nevada (0-2 SU and ATS)
Missouri will try to wrap up a perfect non-conference season for the fourth straight year when it travels to Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nev., for a matchup with the winless Wolf Pack.
The Tigers crushed Furman 52-12 on Saturday in a non-lined home game. QB Blaine Gabbert did the damage on offense, throwing for 256 yards and three TDs, finding WR Jared Perry seven times for 161 yards and two scores. The defense limited Furman to 93 rushing yards on 34 carries, but it did allow 305 passing yards.
Gabbert has been extremely efficient for Gary Pinkel’s squad, completing 68 percent of his throws with eight TDs and no INTs. He leads an offense that’s putting up 38.7 points and 440 yards per contest, while the defense has been just as strong (13.7 ppg, 347.7 ypg).
Nevada has opened the season with two tough road losses, falling at Notre Dame 35-0 in the season opener as a 14½-point pup and then dropping a 35-20 loss at Colorado State on Saturday as a 3½-point chalk. Dating to last season, the Wolf Pack have lost four of five overall (0-5 ATS).
Chris Ault’s team has committed eight turnovers this season without forcing one and the offense has not gotten on track, despite returning WAC offensive player of the year Colin Kaepernick at QB and the conference’s leading rusher in Vai Taua. Defensively, the Wolf Pack have allowed six touchdowns of 25 yards or more already this season and opponents are completing 68.3 percent of their passes against Nevada, with seven TD strikes.
These teams met in Missouri last year with the Tigers clobbering Nevada 69-17, easily covering the 26-point spread.
Missouri comes into this one just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover, but the Tigers are on ATS runs of 6-1 as a road favorite, 7-2 in September, 10-3 on the road, 11-4 in non-conference action, 6-1 in non-conference roadies and 11-0 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points. Nevada is in pointspread slumps of 1-5 as a ‘dog, 1-4 in September and 1-6 in non-conference games, but the Pack are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games in Reno.
The Tigers have topped the total in 10 of their last 13 roadies and six of seven as a road favorite, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-1 after an ATS win and 4-0 in non-conference action. Meanwhile, Nevada is on “over” stretches of 4-2 overall, 3-1 at home and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Finally, last year’s meeting in Columbia easily soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (89-64) at Colorado (86-66)
The Cardinals look to wrap up the N.L. Central title when they send ace Chris Carpenter (16-4, 2.34 ERA) to the mound at Coors Field, while the Rockies counter with Aaron Cook (10-6, 4.47).
St. Louis can claim its fourth division crown in the last six years with a victory tonight or a Cubs loss in San Francisco. The Redbirds failed to sweep the Astros in Houston on Wednesday, losing 3-0, but they’re still 4-2 in their last six games and are on additional runs of 36-16 overall, 16-5 on the road, 12-3 versus the N.L. West, 10-2 on Friday, 9-1 after an off day, 42-16 as a favorite and 19-8 against right-handed starters.
The Rockies finished off a three-game home series with the Padres on Thursday, losing 5-4, and dropping the final two games of that three-game set. Colorado now leads the Braves by 3 ½ games and the Giants by four in the race for the National League’s final playoff spot. The Rockies have dropped seven of 11 overall, 10 of 14 as an underdog, five of seven on Friday and seven of eight to teams with a winning record. On the plus side, Jim Tracy’s squad is on runs of 37-14 at home, 8-2 at home versus right-handed starters and 37-15 against the N.L. Central.
Colorado has won six straight games against the Cardinals, including a four-game sweep in St. Louis in early June.
Carpenter is coming off Saturday’s 2-1 home victory over the Cubs, tossing eight shutout innings while scattering eight hits and two walks. The veteran right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts, including each of his last three on the road. For the season, Carpenter has given up two runs or fewer in 18 of 26 outings, yielding more than three runs just three times. He’s 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 14 road efforts.
With Carpenter on the hill, St. Louis is on impressive runs of 91-37 overall, 43-21 on the highway, 68-27 as a favorite, 21-5 against the N.L. West, 24-3 when he pitches on five days’ rest, 17-5 on Friday and 35-9 in series openers. Additionally, Carpenter is 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in four career starts (all St. Louis wins) against the Rockies, surrendering two earned runs in 29 innings.
Cook has been sidelined with a shoulder injury since Aug. 21, when he suffered a 6-3 home loss to the Giants (four runs allowed in three innings). The right-hander went 0-3 with a 12.19 ERA in his last three starts before going on the disabled list. At home this year, Cook is 4-2 with a 4.71 ERA in 11 starts, with the Rookies going just 5-6.
Colorado is 7-2 in Cook’s last nine starts against the N.L. Central and 4-1 in the last five when Cook opens a series, but they’ve come up empty in six of Cook’s seven career starts against St. Louis, going 0-4 in his last four at home against the Cards. Cook has a 5.64 ERA in eight lifetime outings against the Redbirds.
For St. Louis, the under is on runs of 33-16-3 when they’re favored, 4-1 on Friday, 4-1 against the N.L. West, 9-4 behind Carpenter and 4-0 when Carpenter faces the Rockies. Likewise, Colorado carries “under” trends of 4-1-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 against the N.L. Central, 5-0 as a home pup and 3-1-1 in Cook’s last four starts. However, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams overall, 5-2 in the last seven clashes at Coors Field and 5-1-1 the last six times Cook has faced the Cardinals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (91-61) at N.Y. Yankees (97-56)
The Red Sox make one final charge at the division-leading Yankees when they open a three-game series in the Bronx, with the red-hot Jon Lester (14-7, 3.33) scheduled to pitch against Joba Chamberlain (8-6, 4.72).
New York, which has already clinched a playoff spot, comes into this series with a six-game lead over Boston in the A.L. East. The Red Sox do have a healthy 7½-game edge on the Rangers in the wild-card race.
Boston ended a four-game series at Kansas City on Thursday with a 10-3 victory. The Red Sox are 5-2 on their current 10-game road trip and they’re on further upticks of 29-8 overall, 44-19 versus the A.L. East, 9-2 as a road favorite, 43-20 in series openers and 6-1 against winning clubs.
The Yankees took Thursday off after capping a six-game West Coast road trip with a pair of one-run wins over the Angels on Tuesday (6-5) and Wednesday (3-2). Although they’ve only managed to split their last eight games, the Yanks are still on incredible runs of 59-24 overall, 46-16 at home, 11-3 as an underdog, 39-17 versus southpaw starters and 37-14 against divisional foes.
The Red Sox won the first seven meetings in this rivalry this season, but the Yankees have come back to take six of the last seven, including a four-game home sweep in August when New York outscored Boston 25-8.
Lester has come up with nine consecutive quality starts since the beginning of August, going 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA during this stretch, and the Red Sox are 7-0 in his last seven starts (5-0 on the road), all of them multiple-run victories. Most recently, Lester is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three trips to the mound (three runs allowed in 21 innings), as Boston pounded the White Sox (6-1 on the road), Rays (4-0 at home) and Orioles (11-5 on the road).
Not only have the Sox won seven straight behind Lester, but with the southpaw on the hill they’re on additional runs of 39-16 overall, 46-14 as a favorite and 4-0 against the A.L. East. Lester is 8-4 with a 3.53 ERA on the highway in 2009, and he’s faced the Yankees six times since the start of last season, and all six were quality starts, with the Washington native going 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA.
Chamberlain has been on a pitch count the entire second half of the season and hasn’t lasted more than four innings in any of his last six outings. Furthermore, he’s 0-4 in his last seven trips to the mound, including Saturday’s ugly 7-1 loss at Seattle in which he gave up all seven runs in just three innings. Chamberlain is 3-3 with a 5.24 ERA in 17 starts at Yankee Stadium, with his team winning all 11 of his no-decisions to make them 14-3 when Chamberlain pitches in the Bronx in 2009.
Chamberlain is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts this season against Boston, against whom he’s 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA in nine lifetime appearances (five starts).
For Boston, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall (all on the road), 5-0 as a favorite, 12-5-1 in A.L. East play and 4-1 when Lester pitches on the road. However, the under is 12-5-3 in Boston’s last 20 Friday contests, 4-1-1 in Lester’s last six on Friday, 10-3-3 in Lester’s last 16 when opening a series and 3-0-1 when Lester faces New York.
New York is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0-1 against southpaw starters, 5-2 on Friday and 7-2 versus winning teams. Yet the over is 3-1-1 both in its last five divisional contests and its last five as a home underdog. Finally, the over was the play in all three Red Sox-Yankees clashes at Fenway Park a month ago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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